Economist
Oliver’s Insights – Here we go again! – the threat to economies and investment markets from the Israel and Iran war
19 June
Key points So far, the Israel/Iran war is limited, and various constraints suggest it may stay that way with Iran reportedly wanting to return to talks. It’s still early days though and so the risk of an escalation threatening oil supplies...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The risk of a US public debt crisis – and implications for shares
12 June
Key points US tax cuts point to ongoing budget deficits around 7% of GDP, a rising trend in already very high public debt and a further rise in already record debt interest payments. While a full-blown US public debt crisis is unlikely, this...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA cuts again and becomes more dovish
22 May
Key points As widely expected, the RBA cut by 0.25% taking its cash rate to 3.85%. This is the second rate cut in this easing cycle. The RBA remains “cautious about the outlook”, but its overall commentary appears more dovish leaving the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Trump’s policies & the equity risk premium – the good, the bad & the ugly
22 May
Key points Helped by President Trump’s backdown on tariffs, shares have The good news is that the last month highlights that Trump is still sensitive to share market falls and worries of recession. The bad news is that the tariff mayhem could...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Labor returned to government in Australia – key challenges and risks
13 May
Key points The return of Labor with an increased majority basically means more of the same in terms of key economic policies. The key challenges for the Government are to boost productivity and hence living standards, improve housing supply and...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Why investors need to be aware of the psychology of investing
1 May
Key points Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts & why they can react in extreme ways to events. The key for...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven reasons Australia is likely to avoid recession from Trump’s shock
17 April
Key points President Trump’s trade war poses a threat to Australian economic growth particularly via the indirect impact of weaker global activity driving less demand for our exports and lower commodity prices. Australia is likely to avoid a...[Read More]
Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 8/04/2025
10 April
Global share markets plunged over the last week taking them well below their mid-March lows in response to Trump’s higher than expected tariffs, with China’s retaliation on Friday adding to worries about a full-blown trade war, all of which...[Read More]